Heavy Snow possible in The Ohio Valley this week

Heavy Snow possible in The Ohio Valley this week

Mother nature has been busy with The Ohio Valley this year so far with brutal cold temps, snow and ice.  As you would expect, not much changing this week. Before I get into that, we’ve got some problems going on right now to talk about first, so let’s dig in.

Winter Storm Warnings in Place from Paducah Kenucky, through Central and Eastern KY into Southern Ohio. Any county you see in the pink below is under a Winter Storm Warning, the highlighted brown counties are under a Winter Weather Advisory. As of right now Western Kentucky looks to be on the lower end for totals with 3-5, The Louisville Kentucky area we will go with 3-6 inches and leading the totals is Central Kentucky into Northeast KY with 5-8 inches possible. Any area that sees any snow bands setup could see higher amounts. Road conditions in these areas are expected to really deteriorate overnight, so expect some delays and school closings tomorrow morning. Southern INDIANA -  Counties along the Ohio River could see some road issues later tonight, but the brunt of this system is expected to be South of these areas. ANY Slight change in track of these snowlines could have impacts on Southern Indiana, so we will have to watch radar trends close, but we are very confident that the heaviest amounts will be SOUTH and EAST of The Ohio River.

ohio-valley-winter-weather-warnings

 NEXT IN LINE…

Well as you have heard for almost a week now another winter storm has it’s eyes on The Ohio Valley. This one has caused quite a stir in Social Media with a couple local weather outlets on Facebook calling for a huge snow or huge Ice event. Ohio Valley Weather Authority has been watching it close, but held off on any forecast because it is 100% impossible to forecast the track of a system when it is 4,000 miles away. Until a system moves into the USA and is sampled by out network of weather balloons, it can not be forecast accurate. Putting out a forecast a week in advance of a impending snow or ice event is reckless and can cause a lot of people a lot of hassle and headache trying to prepare for something that you have no ideal is coming or not. Ohio Valley Weather Authority does not use these tactics in forecasting this far out, but we always share our thoughts and How it CURRENTLY looks to us by the data we have before us.. With that said, we are now getting close enough where data is getting better and we can give you a general ideal of what is going on.

A strong storm system is expected to move into The Ohio Valley late Tuesday Night..

Here is a map of the GFS model, SLP
As you can see, precip looks to be fairly heavy across the entire area.. The amount of available moisture has not been in question, we’ve known that the atmosphere will have plenty of moisture and could put down anything from heavy rain, ice or snow.. So what are we looking at?

gfsUS_sfc_prec_063

1. Heavy Rain? Yes most of Kentucky looks to stay all rain for this event, with surface temps, and 850mb temps (about a mile off the ground) looking to stay warm enough to support all rain.

2. Ice-Sleet-Snow mixture? – Yes in between the heavy rain, and heavy snow we expect some freezing rains, sleet and snow. The best area to see this slushy mix would be Southern Indiana, Southern Ohio, Very far Northern Tip of Kentucky, and Southern Illinois.

3. Heavy Snow? Yes. The Northern portions of our coverage area are likely to have deal with some heavy snow totals. As of the data we have right now before us Central and Northern Illinois, North of Indianapolis Indiana and Northern Ohio look to carry the brunt of this storm. As for totals, we won’t have our official forecast totals out until a few more model runs, but for fun let’s look at what the models are showing us accum. wise

#1. The NAM Model..by far leading the pack with bullish amounts of snow with 12-18 inches in Northern IL, OH, IN and Southern Michigan

nam

The GFS Model. GFS is picking up on a heavy snow event in our Northern Coverage area, but is trending lower with overall totals with 6-10 inches being the rule.. Again, neither of these are our official forecast. We still want to see fresh data from this system is it goes through the weather Balloon network so we can give you a more accurate forecast, with plenty of time to prepare IF something is headed your way!

After that system.. You guessed it, another one

We have been seeing this system on the models for a few days now so it is worth mentioning. Absolutely no forecasting this one that far out, but just to let you guys know it’s something we are keeping track of. What we see right now, is just another storm system with a lot of moisture to work with. So we have to watch model trends close, and what happens mid week could effect what happens with this system over the weekend. Snowpacks can change temperature profiles, so we have to watch the middle of this week and the weekend close as this system has the look of a classic winter setup for snow to the north, and severe weather in the deep south. Way to early to even try to guess where it will set up, but just so you know we’re keeping a eye on it.

gfsUS_sfc_prec_162 Heavy Snow possible in The Ohio Valley this week

So, stick around things are looking very busy for the Ohio Valley this week!

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