A destructive night to our west. Pictures in the blog, and simulated radar shots of Wednesday!

Today is getting off to a rough start for folks in Nebraska. A rare “high risk” of severe weather has been outlined by the SPC for a good chunk of real estate.

 

spc

High risks are rare for any time of year, but especially in June, when the severe weather season usually begins to calm down quite a bit. Hail close to  golf ball sized  as well as spotter confirmation of a tornado has been reported as well.

 

dog

 

Norfolk, Nebraska via Twitter.

 

Attached below are some simulated model images of what the radar could look like tomorow in the Ohio Valley:

5 PM

dog

 

8 PM

dog

 

2 AM

dog

 

Stay with us throughout the day tomorrow, as we will have the entire team on to bring you the latest.– The OVWA team.

 

 

SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT! A LOOK AT WHAT TO EXPECT BELOW!

It has been a very slow Spring when it comes to severe weather. So far, we are way below the average tornado count for this time of the year. That looks to change a bit as we head throughout the next two days. Today features a moderate risk for the  middle and lower Missouri Valley into the middle Mississippi Valley . Large tornadoes and baseball sized hail are possible in these areas. Check out this PWO:

 

dog

 

That same system will move into the Ohio Valley during the day on Wednesday. All modes of severe weather will be in play, including tornadoes. The SPC already has put out a “hatched” area for tomorrow covering a good part of the area:

bwg

The hatched area indicates the possibility of significant severe weather. We here at OVWA have been watching this over the last few days and have put together a general timing graphic:

spc

 

While this is subject to change, it should give a good general idea of a time frame and what hazards to expect. We will have much more on this throughout the next few days.

The OVWA team.

 

 

Severe Weather Safety Guide – Severe Weather Awareness Week

severe-weather-safety

Severe Weather Safety Guide – Severe Weather Awareness Week

You more than likely have heard the test tornado sirens in your area Today. We are in Severe Weather Awareness Week and now is the time to study up on severe weather information and go over your plan of action in the event of dangerous weather. In this post I will go over watches, warnings, safety tips, what we do here at Ohio Valley Weather Authority and what The Storm Prediction Center – National Weather Service offices do before and during severe weather events.

First off, I wanted to go over watches and warnings and what you need to do when you find yourself under one.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch - A severe thunderstorm watch means that conditions are in place in and around the watch box for the development of severe weather with the threat of damaging winds in excess of 60 miles per hour &/Or Hail 1 inch or greater. That is quarter size or larger. Tornadoes are always possible in a severe thunderstorm watch, but usually the concern is wind or hail.

PDS Severe Thunderstorm WatchPDS Severe Thunderstorm Watches are very rare, they are issued when the tornado threat is low and when the wind gusts and hail sizes are forecast to be very high. Usually in a PDS severe thunderstorm watch, you can expect to see either a destructive wind event with winds in the 80-100 mile per hour range or a large widespread destructive hail event over a large area.Tornadoes are also possible in a PDS severe thunderstorm watch, but the main focus of concern is destructive winds or hail. Any time a PDS Severe thunderstorm watch or tornado watch is issued, you need to keep a very close eye on the weather and warnings as PDS watches are a sign of a life threatening weather situation.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning- A severe thunderstorm warning is issued for either ground reports from spotters of 1 inch or larger hail falling, or wind gust of 60 mph or greater. They are also issued when Nexrad radar is picking up severe weather on the radar scans.

Tornado Watch - A tornado watch  is issued when weather conditions are favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms that are capable of producing tornadoes. Watches are usually issued 2-4 hours before severe weather develops to give people ample time to stay alert of changing weather conditions. All watches are issued by The Storm Prediction Center, but local NWS offices can remove counties from watch boxes at their discretion.

PDS TORNADO WATCH - The most dangerous type of severe weather event. PDS tornado watches are issued when there is a higher than normal risk of multiple strong to violent tornadoes – While there are no set criteria for a PDS watch to be issued, they are usually issued when the potential exists for a major tornado outbreak. If your area is under a PDS Tornado Watch you have to keep a constant eye on changing weather conditions. It is very common to see LARGE and VIOLENT Tornadoes in these watch boxes.  Here is a sample of a PDS Tornado Watch issued by The SPC.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
 TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 165
 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
 1045 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
 TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

 CENTRAL KANSAS
 NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA

 EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1045 AM UNTIL
 600 PM CDT.

 ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

 DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
 THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
 POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

 THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
 MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
 GAGE OKLAHOMA TO 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF CONCORDIA KANSAS. FOR A
 COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
 UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

 REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
 TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
 AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
 THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
 AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

TORNADO WARNING – National Weather Services to warn that severe thunderstorms with tornadoes may be imminent. It can be issued after a tornado or funnel cloud has been spotted by the public, storm chasers, emergency management or law enforcement, or more commonly if there are radar indications of tornado formation. When a Tornado warning issued you need to take immediate action to get you and your family to safety.

bar

severe-weather-safety

Planning Ahead for Severe Weather Keeps you Safer

Use the guidelines below to develop a personal tornado safety plan for you and your family. Remember you need to have a plan for wherever you may be when a tornado strikes – at home, at school, at work, on the road or in a public building.

You must be able to get to your safe shelter area quickly – you may only have seconds to act! Your first step to surviving a tornado is to develop a plan before storms are on the horizon.

Developing a Tornado Safety Kit

These items would be extremely useful to have in your storm shelter, or to take with you to your storm shelter, when severe weather strikes.

  • Disaster Supply Kit
    You should store your emergency supplies as close to your shelter as possible.
  • Battery Operated Weather Radio
    You will want to be able to monitor the latest information directly from your National Weather Service.
  • Battery Operated TV and/or Radio
    This will allow you to monitor news and severe weather information. Radios that offer TV audio can be helpful. Also, many TV stations simulcast their broadcasts on AM or FM radio stations.
  • Shoes
    This will be very important if your home is damaged and you must walk across broken glass or other debris!
  • Identification
    You may need identification to move around in the area should significant damage occur.
  • Your Car Keys
    If your car is drivable, you will need the keys to be able to use it. It’s a good idea to keep an extra set in your shelter area.
  • Cell Phone
    If there is phone service, you will certainly want your phone. However, remember that cell phone service may be interrupted after a tornado or other disaster!

Other Things To Consider

If you have a safe room or other shelter area, you might consider storing important papers and other irreplaceable items in the shelter if space permits.

Check and replace batteries in your weather radio, flashlights and other devices in your safety kit often, preferably twice a year. Do this at the same time you set clocks back/ahead in the spring and fall, and when you replace smoke detector batteries. Check you disaster supplies kit often, as well to maintain fresh food and water, etc. Remember that your disaster supplies kit could also be critical in other types of disasters, including winter storms, etc.

Make sure you have something to cover up with. Pillows, blankets, sleeping bags, a mattress could help to protect you from falling/flying debris. Above all protect your head, neck and upper body. Wear a helmet (bicycle, football, baseball, motorcycle, hard hat, etc) if you have one. If there’s room, lie flat and cover up. Otherwise, get as low to the ground as possible and make as small a target as possible.

barovwa

With most severe weather events and outbreaks, we know days in advance that severe weather is possible. Our entire team is skilled in severe weather dynamics, patterns and models all that are used to deliver you the best severe weather forecast. We use guidance from The Storm Prediction Center and Local Weather Service offices, but we do not just simply relay their information. A lot of times we agree with SPC / NWS and a lot of times we don’t. So anytime severe weather is in the forecast all of the admins of Ohio Valley Weather Authority will be in the background going over models & data to give you our forecast. OVWA is comprised of certified skywarn spotters, Storm Chasers, Storm Enthusiast and your basic weather geeks who all have extensive knowledge of severe weather, models, patterns and forecasting skills. We use all of this to give you the best forecast possible to keep you and your family safe.

Only the National Weather Service office can issue severe weather warnings. Nobody can issue valid warnings other than your local NWS office. The warnings you see on our pages, on Facebook and on your local TV Station all come from your local NWS office. So any and all watches and warnings you see on our blog or Facebook page come direction from The Storm Prediction Center or The National Weather Service.

We are coming up and Spring and the Severe Weather season for The Ohio Valley, so please make sure you bookmark the blog here at www.ohiovalleyweather.net - and like us on Facebook. Anytime severe weather is in the forecast you will find the latest data and information you need to keep you and your family safe!

Roger – Ohio Valley Weather Authority

WINTER STORM WARNINGS & ICE STORM WARNINGS ISSUED

WINTER STORM WARNINGS & ICE STORM WARNINGS ISSUED

Warnings are coming out from all local National Weather Services offices including Indianapolis, Paducah, Louisville Kentucky and Wilmington Ohio. Here is the current map and run down of warnings.

ice-storm-warnings-winter-storm-warnings

For Southern Indiana -

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
139 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014

…WINTER STORM TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY…

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ032-021000-
/O.UPG.KLMK.WS.A.0004.140302T1200Z-140304T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KLMK.WS.W.0006.140302T1000Z-140303T1800Z/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-TRIMBLE KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…PAOLI…SALEM…SCOTTSBURG…MADISON…
JASPER…MARENGO…TELL CITY…CORYDON…NEW ALBANY…
JEFFERSONVILLE…BEDFORD
139 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014 /1239 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014/

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ SUNDAY
TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ MONDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN…SNOW…AND SLEET. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING: EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL
BECOME TREACHEROUS AT TIMES. TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE
LIKELY.

* OTHER IMPACTS: GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MAY CAUSE BLOWING SNOW AND WORSEN TREE DAMAGE.

For the Louisville, KY Metro and Counties south of their in the Winter Storm Warning

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/
SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN...SNOW...AND SLEET. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING: MID-MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ALONG WITH A
  QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS
  EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS AT TIMES. TREE DAMAGE
  AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.

* OTHER IMPACTS: GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH SUNDAY
  NIGHT AND MONDAY MAY CAUSE BLOWING SNOW AND WORSEN TREE DAMAGE.

For Southwest Kentucky in the Ice Storm Warning

FULTON-HICKMAN-GRAVES-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HICKMAN...CLINTON...MAYFIELD...BENTON...
MURRAY...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MADISONVILLE...
HOPKINSVILLE...GREENVILLE...ELKTON
1201 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM CST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN LATE
  IN THE DAY. THE FREEZING RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY
  NIGHT. SOME THUNDER WILL ALLSO BE POSSIBLE. THE FREEZING RAIN
  WILL FINALLY CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND SNOW BEFORE ENDING MONDAY
  MORNING.

* MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE APPEAR LIKELY. LESSOR
  ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OR SLEET ARE POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE AND NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES WILL
  BE POSSIBLE. TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS AS
  TEMPERATURES FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT.

Major Winter Storm to impact the Ohio Valley! Here is a look at what to expect.

As you are well aware by now, a huge storm system is taking aim on our area and while some questions still remain, some things are coming into better agreement. Nearly the entire OVWA coverage area is under a Winter Storm WATCH, and we fully believe these will be upgraded during the day on Saturday. We are fairly confident that Northern Indiana, including Indy as well as Northern Ohio will remain in the heavy snow. Some areas north of Indianapolis could see close to a foot of snow! The further south you go, the less confidence we have in precipitation types and amounts. We do have growing concern for southern Indiana and southern Ohio and into North Central KY that a full blown ice storm could occur. Here is the latest map from the WPC concerning the ice accumulations:

spc day 1

 

While this map is not our forecast and will change when the new model runs come in tomorrow , it does give you a good idea of the general areas of concern right now. The system will be fully sampled by the U.S. networks at that point and we should really get a good idea on timing as well as precipitation types and amounts.

One thing that needs to be kept in mind is that throughout the Ohio Valley on Sunday, some areas will see heavy snow, while others see a full blown ice storm, and still others in far southern KY see mostly rain with some snow on the backside. This is an incredibility difficult system to forecast and we will be here throughout the entire storm. Following the Winter mess, we will have a very windy day and falling temperatures to deal with. Power outages are a big concern with any area that gets ice and that is something to keep in mind. Prepare now for a worst case scenario of what you will do if you do lose power and check on friends,neighbors and the elderly. This Winter Storm will have MAJOR effects on our area and we will have constant updates on the blog, on Facebook and Twitter.

Live Severe Weather Outbreak Coverage

Live Severe Weather Outbreak Coverage

We will be updating this page in real time when new watches, warnings and data comes in to us. Just reload the page for the newest information.

8:03

  
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
658 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHWESTERN DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...  
  EASTERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...  
  NORTHWESTERN MCLEAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...  
  
* UNTIL 730 PM CST.  
  
* AT 655 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A LARGE  
  AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF  
  DIXON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.  

7:50 -

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
750 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHERN DAVIESS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...  
  EASTERN KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...  
  
* UNTIL 830 PM EST  
  
* AT 747 PM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES EAST OF VINCENNES...AND MOVING  
  NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.  
  

7:43

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
740 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014  

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A  

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...  
  SOUTH CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...  
  SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...  
  WEBSTER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...  

* UNTIL 715 PM CST  

* AT 636 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF STURGIS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST  
  AT 65 MPH.  

  HAZARD...TORNADO.  

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  

  IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO  
           ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS  
           WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS  
           LIKELY.  

7:31 -

  
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
731 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014  

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A  

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  PARKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...  

* UNTIL 800 PM EST  

* AT 727 PM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ROCKVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 75  
  MPH.  

  HAZARD...TORNADO.  

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  

7:20 – Current Warnings inside the Tornado Watch Boxes – BLUE Severe Thunderstorm, RED Tornado Warning

  
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
716 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014  

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A  

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  WEST CENTRAL DAVIESS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...  
  SOUTHERN KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...  

* UNTIL 800 PM EST  

* AT 712 PM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MOUNT CARMEL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 75  
  MPH.  

ww0011_warnings_resize

7:15 Warning Updates:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
609 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014  

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A  

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHERN EDWARDS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...  
  SOUTHERN WABASH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...  
  NORTHERN GIBSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...  

* UNTIL 645 PM CST  
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
708 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014  

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A  

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  CLAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  NORTHERN OWEN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  SOUTHERN PARKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  PUTNAM COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  VIGO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...  
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
611 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014  

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A  

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  EDWARDS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...  
  NORTHERN GALLATIN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...  
  HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  SALINE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...  
  WABASH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...  
  SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  WHITE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...  
  WESTERN GIBSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...  
  POSEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...  
  NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...  

6:54 -

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
646 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014  

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A  

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  FOUNTAIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  PARKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  VERMILLION COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  NORTH CENTRAL VIGO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...  

* UNTIL 730 PM EST  

* AT 642 PM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CHRISMAN...  
  AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.  

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  

  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  

6:48 – TORNADO WATCH FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA – NORTHERN KY, INCLUDING LOUISVILLE METRO

Untitled-2

6:30 – SPC Considering a TORNADO WATCH for Southern Indiana and Northern KY including Louisville Metro.

1660526_10203487788619353_678261839_n

6:20 – FIRST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS ISSUED FROM THE LOUISVILLE OFFICE…

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
520 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014  

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A  

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  WESTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...  
  NORTHWESTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...  
  SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...  

* UNTIL 550 PM CST  

* AT 518 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES NORTH OF  
  ELKTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.  

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  

  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  

6:19 – FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS…

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
517 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014  

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A  

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  NORTHWESTERN SALINE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...  

* UNTIL 545 PM CST  

* AT 513 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WEST FRANKFORT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT  
  50 MPH.  

  HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  

  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD.  

5:52 – BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
453 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
WESTERN FULTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY…
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MADRID COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI…

* UNTIL 545 PM CST.

* AT 450 PM CST…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF BOLTON…AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 65 MPH.

 

  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  NORTHERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...  

* UNTIL 530 PM CST  

* AT 445 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CEDAR LAKE AREA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT  
  60 MPH.  

 

5:40 – THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A  

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…  
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS…
NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS…
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI…

* UNTIL 500 PM CST

* AT 426 PM CST…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF ALTENBURG…AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

HAZARD…TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL

5:25 – Very strong rotation just west of downtown Memphis, TN. This area is under a TORNADO WARNING RIGHT NOW. IF YOUR IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM GET TO YOUR SAFE PLACE NOW!

1620614_10152232346831941_1790031997_n

5:24pm- THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A  

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS…
NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS…
SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI…

* UNTIL 500 PM CST

* AT 422 PM CST…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ALTENBURG…
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

HAZARD…QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

5:22 – 414 pm — Flash flooding occurring in Sangamon Co. Rescues occurring near Riverton on IL-54. Roads closed in Buffalo

5:20 – THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A  

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
SOUTHERN BOLLINGER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI…
CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI…

* UNTIL 445 PM CST

* AT 408 PM CST…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTH OF
PUXICO…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

HAZARD…QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

5:11 – 407 pm — Power lost to the Springfield NOAA Weather Radio site due to storms. Monitor local TV/radio for severe weather updates!

5:10 – Memphis TN Currently under a TORNADO WARNING

4:55 – Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Indiana-Illinois Issued
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4:43 – Tornado from Morgan County Illinois, near Jacksonville

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4:35 – Warnings coming into the Paducah Kentucky WFO.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A  

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...  
  SOUTHEASTERN CARTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...  
  EASTERN RIPLEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...  

* UNTIL 400 PM CST  

* AT 326 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF  
  DONIPHAN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.  

  HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.  

4:33 – Tornado reported in Cass County Illinois

4:30 – Spc may issue a watch in this area in the next 1-2 hours

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3:24 - Tornado Watch is out (yellow)
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2:55 – Tornado Watch to be issued in the next hour for Western, KY around the Paducah area

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2:45 – SPC issues severe thunderstorm watch for Eastern Missouri, Western Illinois until 7PM.

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1:45 – No watches in our coverage area yet, Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued to the Southwest of Paducah, KY

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12:30 – As we mentioned last night, SPC has now put Louisville area and points southward in a moderate risk for severe weather. Damaging winds the main threat, but tornadoes are possible.

day1

Severe Weather Threat Tomorrow Increasing…

Late night model update on the severe weather event tomorrow…

A couple of the main computer models updated in the last 2 hours and I just wanted to give you update on what they are showing since the last post at 7pm. First up is the NAM model…

The 00z Nam Model made some significant changes pertaining to instability.
With the powerful wind energy we have available with this system, the numbers
the new 00z nam is putting out as far as Cape values go is very concerning.
As you can see its moved areas with 1,000+ cape values north and more west
than the last few runs. On the last post I made, I mentioned if we had
more instability the severe threat would rise. Most of Southern Indiana
and Western Kentucky are in the 600-1,000 range as far as cape values go.

namUS_con_mucape_024

The new NAM model has also brought dewpoints in the 60-62 degree area into
Southern Indiana 30-40 miles north of the Louisville area. Dewpoints of
60 degrees or greater will really provide a lot of juice for these storms
to work with.

namUS_sfc_dewp_021

These are two of the tornado indicators we mentioned in the last blog post. You can find that post
by clicking here to compare the maps.

tornado-risk

Stensrud Tornado Risk – Area has increased as well as strength of the indicator.
This indicator is a combo of instability and wind shear

tornado-risk-stp

Significant Tornado Parameter – new numbers stayed about the same, but overall area expanded

From the SREF Computer Model for Significant Tornado Parameters.. This run
has brought the risk for tornadoes into Southern Indiana

OVERALL -

- Damaging to isolated Destructive Winds will be the main threat
- Isolated Tornadoes are very possible, esp. if we get more sun-higher instability
- Tornado threat did increase on the models compared to the last run
- Hail threat is very low
- Storms move into Western Indiana-Kentucky 3-4pm.
- Storms moving into the Louisville area and along I65 around 6-8pm
- Next SPC Update is out around 1am this morning
- Moderate Risk is absolutely possible
- Our next update will be out around 9am tomorrow

Follow us on Facebook for the latest details and PLEASE share this post on Facebook with your family and friends. Dangerous weather is likely in the area tomorrow.

OVWA- Roger

Dangerous Severe Weather Outbreak Tomorrow Afternoon

First Severe Weather Outbreak of 2014

The system we have been watching for the last week or so is less than 24 hours away, and some of the new data coming in this afternoon is very concerning. We’re dealing with a setup that can and will likely produce all modes of severe weather. Damaging winds, tornadoes, hail and flooding issues are all on the table tomorrow evening. This system is making headlines on all local media outlets, and Facebook as well so let’s get started on what we’re looking at and what time.

First is the Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook for tomorrow. Still a high end slight risk for now, but I believe parts of this should be upgraded to a moderate risk. SPC will have their next update out for this system around 1am tonight. It will be up to them where they lay the risk at, but with the data models have been putting out concerning this storm system, a moderate risk is indeed warranted for this setup. Right now, the area in the hatched black circle area is where the threat for significant severe weather is possible.

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Bulk Shear Forecast Tomorrow Evening. For severe weather about 40 MPH of bulk shear is needed. Here we see 70-80mph across the area

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This is the wind speed forecast about 1 mile off the ground. Brutal wind speeds 70-80MPH are forecast. This is the low level jet stream area.

500mb-jet-strem-severe-weather-outbreak-ohio-valley

This is the mid level jet stream forecast for tomorrow evening. For severe weather, you need this number to be around 40mph.. Here we have 80-100mph

06km-bulk-shear-forecast-severe-weather-outbreak-tornadoes-ohio-valley

This is the Deep Layer shear forecast, here for severe you want to see 30-40mph for severe, again we see 80-100 mph

As you can see, wind energy and shear is not a issue. The atmosphere will be very turbulent tomorrow. We have a powerful cold front moving in, so we have 2 of the three main ingredients for severe weather which is forcing (the cold front) and wind energy-shear. Now we’re going to take a look at instability for tomorrow.

dewpoint-forecast-ohio-valley-weather-authority

Nam Dewpoint Forecast For Tomorrow Afternoon. 55-58 across the area in green

Dangerous Severe Weather Outbreak Tomorrow Afternoon

GFS Dewpoint Forecast For Tomorrow Afternoon. 55-57 across the area in green

cape-forecast-severe-weather-outbreak-indiana-kentucky-ohio

CAPE Forecast from the NAM.. 500-700 across the area, with 1000+ in Western KY and Indiana n the blue. 1,000 is a DANGEROUS number with the wind energy in place.

Dangerous Severe Weather Outbreak Tomorrow Afternoon

GFS CAPE Forecast for tomorrow, numbers in the 350-600 range

IF The NAM were to verify the severe weather threat would be enhanced. The lower the instability will lessen the chance at severe and the higher the instability, will increase chance for severe. Tomorrow we will have to keep a close eye on Dewpoints because where ever the better deep moisture sets up, is where the best chance for destructive winds and tornadoes will be. These next 2 maps are from the NAM model and the 3rd is from the SREF model, all 3 are Tornado Ingredients-Parameters. THIS DOES NOT MEAN TORNADOES ARE GOING TO HIT A CERTAIN AREA, THESE MAPS ARE JUST INDICATORS WHERE MODELS ARE PICKING UP THE BEST SET OF INGREDIENTS FOR ROTATING STORMS,

stp-nam-tornado-forecast-map

Significant Tornado Parameter index from the NAM model. This map generally indicates areas west of I65

sref-model-tornado-forecast-ohio-valley-tornado-severe-weather

From the SREF Model the significant tornado ingredients. Shows the best area for tornadic development in Southwest Kentucky and points southward.

Dangerous Severe Weather Outbreak Tomorrow Afternoon

Stensrud Tornado Indicator. A combination of wind shear and energy that points out best locations for possible tornadic development.

As you can see, none of the tornado indicators are too extreme as of right now, but the threat for rotating storms and isolated tornadoes is there across the entire forecast area. The main threat looks to be damaging winds in the form of a squall line moving across the area, BUT some of the latest future radar models have been picking up on storms firing ahead of the squall line. When this happens you have to watch each cell that fires up because unlike a squall line that has to share its moisture and instability across hundreds of miles up and down the line, these individual cells that fire up have more instability and energy to work with and are notorious for producing severe weather in all forms from destructive winds to tornadoes.So tomorrow we will have to watch the radar very close for any of these rouge cells that fire in advance of the main line.

Timing of storm arrivial

Right now storms look to develop in far Eastern Missouri and Western Illinois in the late morning hours and move into the Paducah Kentucky/Evansville Indiana area around 2-3pm, moving into Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky including the Louisville Metro area in the early evening anywhere from 7pm-9pm and into our Eastern coverage area after 10-11pm tomorrow night. As of right now, damaging winds in the 60-70 mph range appears to be the main threat. If we get more sunshine than expected and instability goes up any, the tornado threat will be increased so we have to watch radars and temp/dewpoint temp readings across the area. We’re expecting quite a few warnings across the entire forecast area, so please stay with Ohio Valley Weather Authority and we will keep you up to date on any watches and warnings.

Live Blog Will Start at 1pm tomorrow.

Our entire team will be covering this system from the time the first warnings are issued until the storms move out of our coverage area. You can follow us on Facebook for all forecast-watches and warnings, as well as here on the blog. We will have live coverage of the storm starting at 1pm tomorrow, so bookmark the blog and reload often for the latest updates – www.ohiovalleyweather.net

Like us on Facebook @ Ohio Valley Weather Authority

Severe Weather Outbreak Thursday

severe-weather-outbreak

Severe Weather Outbreak Thursday

We have been going over computer model data since the 12z morning runs came in and it now appears that a severe weather outbreak is setting up for Thursday with all modes of severe weather possible including tornadoes, damaging winds, hail and flash flooding. We have been watching this system since last week and now computer models are coming into better agreement on this setup so, let’s jump right in.

Currently the SPC has the entire region under a slight risk of severe weather maxed out at 30% in the red shaded area below on the outlook map. We fully believe parts of the area in the 30% risk will be upgraded to a MODERATE RISK of severe weather by Thursday.

Severe Weather Outbreak Thursday

As we have said for days now, wind energy and forcing are not going to be a issue. One main ingredient you look for is mid level winds. For severe weather you want to see mid level winds around 40 mph. Right now the GFS model has the mid level wind forecast to be in the 110-120 miles per hour, with the NAM model painting 80-100 miles per hour. So wind energy is no issue at all. Another BIG PROBLEM is the type of wind shear that is going to be in place. This is called directional shear and is the most dangerous type as it enhances the risk for damaging winds to make it to the surface as well as tornadoes. From the surface through the low level into the mid levels of the atmosphere we have a very high amount of shear that will be in place Thursday, and that is a major concern and a contributing factor to this severe weather outbreak. Here is the latest model forecast from the NAM for 0-6km deep layer shear:

Severe Weather Outbreak Thursday Deep Layer Shear Forecast

As you can see, 90-100 MPH numbers through the area. The common threshold for severe weather is 35-40mph, so this parameter is actually in the dangerous range.

Instability Forecast

This will be the key to this severe weather outbreak. If we get more sun than expected, if early morning showers and thunderstorms along the warm front move out faster than expected, instability numbers will rise faster and chances for a severe weather outbreak will skyrocket. Here is the current CAPE forecast maps from the 18z GFS and NAM models.

First map is from the GFS model. It is on the lower end of Cape values with 100-300 across the area.

Severe Weather Outbreak Thursday Cape Forecast GFS Model

This one if from the NAM Model – It is showing numbers anywhere from 500-1000 cape values. These numbers fully support a severe weather outbreak.

Severe Weather Outbreak Thursday Cape Forecast NAM Model

We will have to monitor dewpoints and surface temperatures Thursday. If dewpoints can get to 60 or above, the NAM’s Cape Forecast will likely be correct or perhaps a bit higher than what it is showing now. If dewpoints make it to 60+ we are going to have serious problems with this severe weather outbreak. Right now models are forecasting dewpoints around 57-58 degrees, so this will be crucial tracking on Thursday. If we can keep early morning rain-clouds in the area, it will lessen the severe weather risk to some degree.

Significant Tornado Parameter from The NAM Model.

The STP index from the Nam model is a combination of multiple weather indicators to give us a good ideal where the atmosphere is best primed for tornadic development. The areas in blue on this map are where this model is picking up the best potential for a few tornadoes. I would expect that if SPC upgrades this to a moderate risk tonight when the new update comes out, most of the area below will be included in it

significant-tornado-parameter-nam-severe-weather-outbreak

Timing of Storms Arrivial

Right now with the current model data, it appears that storms will get started in our Far Western coverage area of Western KY and Central Illinois in the 3-5 pm area Thursday, the the line moving into Southwest Indiana around 6-7pm, Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky along I65 around 9-11pm and East of I65 after 11pm. Louisville metro can expect this line entering around 9-11pm based on current data.

Make sure you follow Ohio Valley Weather Authority on Facebook by clicking here, and please share this post or our Facebook page with your family and friends to help keep them alert on this potential severe weather outbreak.

OVWA – Roger

Severe Weather Event Possible Thursday

Severe Weather Event Possible Thursday

We’ve been talking about the possibility of severe weather in The Ohio Valley and looking at the latest model runs, The chances for severe weather appear to be going up. Since this is a late night update, just to keep you up to date on the model runs I will make it short and quick. (We will have a full update out in the morning with the latest data, outlooks and our official forecast around 11am)

Severe Weather Forecast for Thursday.. All of the areas you see circlerd inside the cyan/light blue are under a 30% risk for severe weather..

Severe Weather Event Possible Thursday

Late night model update

1 – All models agree, this system has massive wind energy to work with.
2. Instability is forecast to be low, BUT enough to produce severe weather
3. Any higher instability on Thursday than forecast will really ramp up severe risk.
4. Main threats as of right now 1. Damaging winds 2. Isolated tornadoes
5. Highest risk for tornadic development Western KY, Southwest Indiana, S.East Illinois.
6. Timing looks to be around 6-8 in those area, 8-midnight areas West of I65 and 1am+ Areas
East of I65.
7. There is potential for some widespread damaging winds with these storms if we see any
added sun/heating on Thursday.
8. The next 4-5 models runs will be crucial in determining how much instability we should see Thursday

Anytime we see a system coming in with massive wind energy like this one is showing, we get concerned. It doesn’t take a lot of heat and instability like you would normally associate with a “normal” spring day to produce severe weather. As long as you have a little instability to work with, systems with a lot of wind energy can basically compensate the lack of instability and still produce severe weather (usually in the form of damaging wind events)
So please stick with us on the blog of on our Facebook page as in the next 24-30 hours, we will be able to dial in the forecast for you a lot better as fresh data comes in.

Ohio Valley Weather Authority on Facebook

OVWA – Roger

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